TRC embrace intelligent urban growth modelling with Forecaz
- Team Forecaz
- Nov 1, 2023
- 3 min read
Updated: Mar 5
CASE STUDY BACKGROUND
The Toowoomba Regional Council (TRC) is one of Queensland’s most progressive local governments, balancing rapid population growth with a commitment to preserving the region’s rural charm and heritage. TRC’s Development Infrastructure and Growth Group leads long-term planning and economic strategy to ensure sustainable and well-serviced growth across the region.
In 2022, TRC partnered with Forecaz to deploy an intelligent, property-based urban growth model that would replace static demographic projections with dynamic, scenario-driven forecasting giving planners the precision and confidence needed to guide infrastructure investment and land use decisions across the region for decades to come.
Planning for Growth at Parcel-Level Precision
As part of its forward-looking Toowoomba Growth Plan (TGP), TRC sought an advanced modelling solution to support infrastructure and land use planning at a granular, parcel-based level. Traditional demographic and planning tools lacked the flexibility for scenario modelling or the precision required for property-based growth forecasting.
TRC required a robust, data-driven approach to:
Assess the impacts of potential policy or zoning changes.
Test growth scenarios and infrastructure demand.
Inform updates to the Toowoomba Region Infrastructure Plan (TRIP) with transparent, evidence-based outputs.
The urgency lay in ensuring that policy decisions around growth areas and infrastructure investments were backed by defensible data and communicated clearly across planning, development, and infrastructure teams.
AI-Powered Urban Growth Modelling with Forecaz
Partnering with Forecaz in June 2022, TRC adopted the Forecaz platform to provide intelligent urban growth and scenario modelling for the Council.
Forecaz designed and deployed a property-based urban growth model that integrated TRC’s spatial datasets and development layers, enabling high-resolution forecasting and scenario testing.
Key technical highlights included:
Comprehensive data cleansing and verification across numerous sources, including baseline demographic data, local planning schemes, development applications, and designated growth areas.
Structured collaborative workshops with stakeholders from Planning and Development Group, Development Assessment, and infrastructure network owners to refine model parameters.
Application of AI-driven Bayesian Network models within Forecaz to uncover “missing middle” development opportunities and optimise density in core urban areas.
Identification and configuration of future water and sewer service areas, aligning infrastructure capacities with projected growth zones.
Implementation & Enablement
Forecaz provided full-service technical enablement, from initial data engineering through to model deployment and advisory support, including:
Data integration and schema harmonisation.
Urban simulation design and configuration in the Forecaz platform.
Validation workshops and scenario testing facilitation.
Ongoing technical guidance for TRC’s TRIP model and growth assumption updates.
This holistic approach ensured that the model was not only technically sound but also practically embedded within council decision-making processes.
Results & Outcomes
The Forecaz-enabled model gave TRC a clear, evidence-backed framework for urban growth planning and infrastructure investment.
Key outcomes:
Scenario-driven decision-making: TRC can now explore multiple growth trajectories and policy impacts with confidence.
Infrastructure alignment: Demonstrated that forecasted population growth could be supported within existing planned service areas, avoiding costly overdevelopment of infrastructure.
Transparency and collaboration: Unified datasets and modelling logic have strengthened interdepartmental collaboration and public trust in planning decisions.
Actionable results: Generated parcel-level planning assumptions for capital works validation and future trunk infrastructure planning and scheduling.
Continuous improvement: Forecaz continues to underpin TRC’s infrastructure planning cycle, with Sizztech supporting ongoing data updates and scenario refinement.
By deploying Forecaz, Toowoomba Regional Council transformed its approach to strategic growth planning from static projections to dynamic, data-verified scenario modelling. This partnership positioned TRC at the forefront of intelligent regional planning, ensuring sustainable growth that maintains the character and livability of the Toowoomba region.